A change of tools

On popular demand, I am moving the blog over to wordpress. Do click over to the new location or add the new feed.

A street corner view: advertising market in India

An industry quagmire?

India is experiencing a significant slowdown in ad spend. In some ways it mirrors the global slowdown. In others it is uniquely Indian and in large parts self-inflicted and an outcome of the way the industry grew up. All forms of media are deeply impacted - TV, print, out-of-home, radio, web, mobile - you name it. The information below is culled from conversations with multiple senior execs over the past few days. [Caveat emptor: I leave it to the reader to corroborate my findings, if basing any deep business decision around the numbers used below]. Accustomed to calling out gloom and doom on other sectors, it would take a lot of guts and integrity for the media to own up to the gravity of the slow down in their own backyard. If you find good sources, do leave a link.

Displaying house ads or having 40-80% idle inventory is now commonplace. Advertisers are having a field day - that is if they have any budget available to spend. Those that do, are able to drive ad-buys down to unprecedented low levels. Airtel seems to be the largest advertiser by far, followed by CPG firms. Here's a quick rundown.


TV
Given India's insatiable appetite for music, videos and movies, TV saw an explosion of channels vying for the billion+ eyeballs these past few years. Tens of news, music, sports, talk, food, religious, ethnic, regional, etc. channels emerged as the cost of licensing became inexpensive. Aggregated 10 second slots on the most regarded and watched national channels are down to Rs. 2,000 ($40)! How can any of these channels maintain their top line is beyond my comprehension. Add to this low price, unfilled inventory, and you have a disaster in the making ... or perhaps a much needed consolidation.


Print
You don't need an analyst to issue a white paper. Walk with me to a street corner and pick up any broadsheet newspaper - Times of India, Hindustan Times, DNA, Mint, Dainik Bhaskar (which, BTW now, has the largest circulation), Navbharat Times, even Economic Times - and flip through the pages. Count the number of ads, and if, you happen to have a copy of the same newspaper lying around from the early part of 2008, you can compare yourself. The first thing you notice is how thin "today's paper" is and the clutter much reduced. Then you notice that very few national brands have ad inserts. Finally, most ads are call-to-action ads with little to no branding ads. Here's what I heard through the grapevine - a full back page ad for India wide circulation reaching over 20 cities and 20 million readers, with a 4:1 reader-to-sub ratio, can be had for Rs. 50 lakhs ($100k). Chump change for the buyer used to paying over a quarter million dollars during the go-go days and having to wait for weeks before getting a slot.


Radio
Most ad-creation is/was happening for TV, and being retargeted with a few hacks for Radio, leaving a lot to be desired on quality. Listening time is relegated to cars largely, and one can just feel the low number of ads one is listening to. This is a double whammy for the broadcaster. They have fewer ads and therefore more licensed content they need to play. They can, of course, repeat programs provided they own the original content. Sadly however, there is very little original content. One saving grace seems to be the proliferation of FM radios on mobile phones. This does increase the reach, and gets more "eyeballs."


Out-of-Home
I mentioned this in my previous post. India is a country littered - yes littered - with billboards. Now as you drive by, you will notice that even in large metros such as Delhi, Mumbai (pic) and Bangalore, 2 out 5 billboards are vacant. The stark reality hits you particularly hard on the Bangalore Airport Highway. On this 40km stretch of prime ad real estate, only 1 out of 8 billboards had the good fortune of hosting an advertiser. This industry is considered the armpit of advertising in India because of the fragementation of property owners and free-for-all fraudulent tactics that are pervasive. In the current economic climate, only the very high trafficed areas are getting any activity.


New Media
Web, mobile and the nascent digital out-of-home market are hurting in their own way. India has roughly 15 million users on the web (only 5 million on the 256kbps+ lines that pass as broadband). The sad irony here is that new media lends itself to auditable performance measurements. There is no place for the publisher to hide compared to blind (CPM or circulation based) nature of radio, TV or print ads. Advertisers can, and do ask the hard questions and are rarely getting desired results. SMS ads do reach many tens of millions of users and seem to be holding up advertiser interest.


Musings & observations
The depth of the slowdown is making the wheels move viz. consolidation. Print publishers are eyeing TV properties and radio stations; media agencies are merging; campaigns integrated across multiple media are surfacing. All this is a positive for the long run (for the survivors, at least). Creative deals are begin crafted. Not fast enough, but the name of the game is changing to regional and demographic targeting. Creative deals are surfacing. Here is an example that captures the unique character of India's dhandha (deal making) mindset to close out this post.

A regional broadsheet publisher is working on a strict percentage of increased revenue in a targeted market. Advertiser says - "I sell Rs. 1 cr of soap in this town every month. You do whatever print advertising you want to; give me whatever real-estate you are inclined to; whatever frequency Mr. Publisher. You keep x% of any incremental revenue I get out of this market." No minimums; no guarantees; no agencies - just the basics with a brutal set of metrics.

India trip - a few random observations

5 days; 3 cities; 10's of conversations with both business colleagues and friends; and I am now getting a sense that the country is going through a change, but doesn't quite know it yet. In no particular order or coherency, here are a few random observations and related thoughts:

• Disdain for politicians in all classes of society is reaching epic proportions. Whether this translates to a change of political will, remains to be seen. One is beginning to witness incidents where people are actually making bureaucrats' cars stop and wait for traffic lights. Previously, red, amber or green, these cars would whiz by without a pause. What's the latest fear (or hope, given your perspective)? Mayawati actually has a shot at becoming Prime Minister!
  


• What truckers' strike, what fuel shortage? Despite supplies for fuel being choked by 70% or more nationwide, for a week, the country simply adapted. Yes, there were lines, yes there was anger, but no - things do not/did not come to a standstill. Flight cancellations, price gouging, lines at government owned pumps, etc. are all taken in stride. Life is returning back to a state of normalcy (if there is such a state in India) as I write this.
  


• Peaceful co-existence amongst Muslims and Hindus, despite the deep chagrin caused by 26/11, remains the overwhelming norm. This is particularly evident in Lucknow - a city where probably a third of the population is Muslim. Hindu (and Muslim) anger is directed towards the rogue elements in Pakistan, the governments' inability to manage, but not the Muslim community. There are several negative impacts that are visible. For example, the train between Amritsar and Lahore has carried a total of 5 passengers in the past 5 days; all - yes, all - concerts by Pakistani artists that were on tour to India have been cancelled. The larger question remains. Where do we go from here?
  


• Big unknowns around what the Obama presidency means to India. Bush has been perceived as having been really good for the country, specially because of sponsoring and pushing the nuclear deal through; taking a hard stance against terrorism and for free trade. Ironically, Hillary Clinton's nomination to the State Dept. has people viewing Obama favorably in the hope that the Clinton's fondness for India will shift the balance to India even if Obama tries to play the middle ground with Pakistan.
  


• The economy seems to be in a slow motion fall. Layoffs, unheard of till very recently are now accepted with little or no fuss. Here are some anecdotal observations.


• Mid size IT companies previously geared up for 30% growth are seeing 10% declines as Q4 numbers surface. Most seem to be behaving like deer caught in a spotlight.



• Training institues for hospitality, travel and retail personnel are dying sudden deaths.



• Hotel rates are down by 40% or more in Bangalore, Delhi and Bombay. Perhaps, more significantly, rooms are available with little or no notice!-- Flights and trains on major routes are all full; airports and train stations are packed. This doesn't compute ... for me, yet.



• Large billboards on the Bangalore Airport Highway are 80% vacant. Even the ones considered to be at vantage points are 50+% vacant.-- Foot fall in shopping malls is dramatically down. Even on the weekend, there was only a trickle of shoppers in this one Lucknow mall (picture) where till recently, one had to wait in a 10 min queue just to get in. It could be that the novelty factors of malls has worn off the shoppers. I think not.-- Salary and other job related expectations have, almost overnight, become downright reasonable. The cockiness is all but gone. The psychology of raises of 15-20% every six months that had become a right, seem to have switched to hopes of just holding on to jobs.



• Banks seem to be unaffected and other than ICICI, no bank seems to have declared any meaningful losses. The cash economy, as always is vibrant, and seems to be lending consistency of support when the official economy is teetering all over the place.



• Real Estate is affected, but similar to US, property prices for high value places are still intact and very few flats come up for sale. I suppose the lack of leverage; paying large sums in "black" and no runaway mortgage lending does have a bright side.



• From government to private companies, large and small, maintaining top line revenue with cost reductions is the only mantra. The Indian business man is creative anyway. These economic times has brought out that much more creativity. The good part about the Satyam/Maytas, PWC disaster just might be that keeping one's nose clean will actually be considered goodness. The media is making hay out of the Raju brothers' plight in jail ... white collar crime or not ... they did spend the weekend with petty and not so petty criminals (purse thiefs, chain snatchers, wife beaters, dowry mongers, kidnappers and more).

So what does this all mean? Heck if I know. I promised only observations and not coherency of thought, remember.

On a lighter note, I happened to be on the same flight from FRA-BOM as drop-dead-gorgeous-in-person Kareena Kapoor and beau Saif Ali Khan. They seemed to be largely normal people, other than a few chips on Kareena's shoulders. No preferential treatment in the immigration lines, but they didn't have to baby sit their bags through customs - Saif's PA did the job - go figure.

I'll blog some more as time and internet connectivity permit, or Namita goads me to. This is a business trip and those priorities do come first, sometimes.

A ringside seat to "Entrepreneur Journeys"

Recently, I was asked to do a formal review for Sramana Mitra's book. She has been a friend and colleague for several years now, and has put together a stellar track record as a strategist, thinker, practitioner and now as an author. I heartily recommend this to all entrepreneurs - first time, or serial. Here are excerpts from my review:

Entrepreneurship is, by definition, uncharted territory. The book Entrepreneur Journeys by serial entrepreneur and Forbes columnist Sramana Mitra, comes as close as anything to presenting roadmaps that can be leveraged by both seasoned and first time entrepreneurs.
As someone who is a repeat entrepreneur and one who has put together multiple ventures, I can tell you, it is more often than not, a lonely process. Entrepreneur Journeys provides a much-needed set of tools that I could relate to, at a visceral level. If this book can help a seasoned entrepreneur like myself, the first time entrepreneur will find it to be incredibly useful.

Sramana has done a great job in highlighting when to be persistent and patient, and when to make choices and the hard decisions. In the words made famous by Kenny Rogers – “know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em” – is not always easy. The book provides several anecdotal points which relate to aspects of my own personal journey as an entrepreneur.

The diversity of the industries covered and the depth to which Sramana has been able to interview and get first-hand experiences is incredible. Blending in both domain and business strategy concepts with a light writing style is uniquely Sramana. She makes the complex information very easy to absorb and, more importantly, apply in the real life situations that an entrepreneur faces every day. Permalink.

Is "white space" spectrum really free?

Google and Microsoft clearly won a political and PR victory in getting the FCC to open up the white space spectrum previously being used by TV broadcasters for "free". The larger question to ask is whether it really is free. There is still a long journey before a vibrant ecosystem emerges around this. It will take sustained cooperation between equipment manufacturers, content owners and systems providers. More importantly, it will take continued lobbying efforts of the big boys to keep the momentum. Elliott Drucker has done a good thought provoking write-up in Wireless Week.

A start - taking the first step

I've been meaning to blog for a while now. The disposition of Mobio and this break has finally given me the opportunity to bolt myself down and just-do-it.

I promise no consistency of theme or topics. The intent is to just pontificate about things as they occur to me. This could be just my opinions on world events, politics, business, entrepreneurship, mentoring, wireless, web x.0, mobile apps, new media, enterprise software, India, social media, travel, books, music, gadgets ... IOW, just about everything and anything.

I invite you to bookmark this blog, agree, disagree, agree to disagree, or simply acknowledge like my Japanese friends would - with a "hai." So, to get you started, my first link is to - What's Japanese for "yes" and "no"? I had always wondered about this till I did my research on negotiating do's and dont's in Japan, while pulling a deal together in 1994 [yes 14+ years ago, but still fresh as an experience].

Enjoy & thanks for giving me a "button on your dial."